Welcome back to the Big Law Business column. I’m Roy Strom, and today we place the odds for what might happen at law firms in the year ahead. Sign up for Business & Practice, a free morning newsletter from Bloomberg Law.
The annual installment of the Big Law Sportsbook usually lands at the end of the year. Well, this is the end of my year. After next week, I’ll be taking parental leave through January. I have some good reading lined up; I hope you do, too.
In the meantime, I have some house cleaning to do. For those who are new here, this is how the Sportsbook works: I set a number, and you pick whether the answer turns out to be higher than (over) or lower than (under) that number. For instance, Vegas oddsmakers last season projected the Chicago Cubs to win 85.5 games. Bettors who took the “over” won that bet when my favorite baseball team won 92 games.
This is the fourth year for the Big Law Sportsbook, in which I set odds on what’s ahead for the legal industry’s top players. The house has less visibility this time around, given that we’re rolling out the book in October. That might be an opportunity for you Big Law punters.
Really quick, I want to give myself a pat on the back for being a truly excellent oddsmaker. The idea is to set the line as close as possible to what winds up happening in reality and to shoot for an even split between overs and unders. We’ve made 23 over-under propositions in the Sportsbook’s history. The “over” has hit 13 times. The “under,” 10 times. It’s hard to do much better than that. I’m designing these bets to be a coin flip, and they are just about a coin flip. Make sure to scroll to the bottom to see just how close we set the odds on the bets last year.
Maybe I should test my talents on legal prediction markets. (I’m kidding, the key to setting odds is being prudent, and I only gamble on roulette.)
Let’s test your luck.
Kirkland & Ellis 2025 Revenue: $9.99 billion
You’re reading that right, folks. There’s roughly even odds that this year will be the first in which a Big Law firm cracks the 11-figure revenue mark. Kirkland’s 2024 revenue was $8.8 billion. To reach $10 billion, the firm needs at least 13.7% growth this year. Law firms are raising rates by about 8% on average. Kirkland is upping headcount, particularly in its litigation practice, which industry data shows has been one of the most resilient practices for demand growth in recent years. Through the first half of the year, law firms averaged 11.3% revenue growth, Wells Fargo reported. It’s not unlikely that Kirkland is beating that industry average.
Firms to Crack $3 Billion in Revenue in 2025: 16.5
Ten firms hit the $3 billion gross revenue mark last year. As many as 18 firms realistically could exceed the number this year.
McDermott is a new entrant, as a result of its merger with Schulte Roth & Zabel. Three firms—Hogan Lovells, Simpson Thacher, and Jones Day—are well-positioned to also join the $3 billion club, needing growth of between 1% and 4%. Dentons needs 9% growth. Three other firms—Paul Weiss, Greenberg Traurig, and Davis Polk—are on the cusp. They need revenue growth between 14% and 18% to cross the $3 billion line.
Our number, 16.5, implies one of those firms will fall short. Will another?
Harvey Press Releases Announcing Top 100 Law Firm Partnerships: 6.5
No legal technology company in my memory has captured attention quite like legal artificial intelligence company Harvey. It’s a $5 billion lightning rod, as a recent social media controversy shows. Harvey also gathered momentum with Big Law this year, unveiling deals with five top law firms through buzzy press releases. Paul Weiss, Latham & Watkins, Duane Morris, McGuireWoods and Willkie all did something with the company this year.
AI needs to scale, and adding six or seven more press releases next year will be the type of growth Harvey’s investors might expect.
New Executive Orders Targeting Law Firms and/or Preemptive Law Firm Deals with the Trump Administration: 0.5
Is it over? The Trump administration’s retribution campaign against Big Law has gone quiet since the spring. In theory, there’s nothing—except maybe the orders’ ultimate failure in court—stopping the administration from jump-starting the initiative.
Mergers Between Top 100 Law Firms: 0.5
Tie-ups between two Top 100 law firms by revenue used to be incredibly rare, but this year we saw the Troutman Pepper Locke merger go into effect as well as McDermott and Schulte combine—and many expect continued consolidation. Will there be back-to-back years with megadeals between law firms? You decide.
Publicly Announced Private Investments in Big Law Firms: 0.5
This is not a market we would take bets on any previous year. There has never been such an announcement. But the Big Law Sportsbook believes such a deal is at least possible next year. Burford Capital said publicly it is looking to invest in major law firms and chatter is swirling about private equity-backed management service organizations.
Even if some Big Law managing partners are skeptical, it just takes one out-of-the-box thinker for the over to hit.
Last Year’s Results
Firms Eclipsing $3 Billion in Revenue in 2024: 10.5
Result: Under. Ten firms eclipsed that mark.
Bad Beat: Hogan Lovells was within $36 million of making “over” the winning bet.
Firms to Hit $2 Million in Revenue Per Lawyer: 9.5
Result: Under. Nine firms reached that mark.
Bad Beat: Quinn Emanuel was within $22,000 of moving the winner to “over.”
Kirkland & Ellis Equity Partners in 2024: 571.5
Result: Over. Kirkland reported 573 equity partners, according to The American Lawyer data.
Bad Beat: The house almost nailed this number on the dot!
Paul Weiss’ New Partner Class in 2024: 44.5
Result: Unknown. Paul Weiss hasn’t yet announced its newest partner class.
Highest Reported Billing Rate: $3,150
Result: Over. Neal Katyal’s reportedly charging $3,250.
Worth Your Time
On Goodwin Procter: The law firm’s mergers and acquisitions and litigation work elevated its revenue to $2.7 billion in the year ending Sept. 30, Tatyana Monnay reports. Revenue rose more than 12%, setting a new all-time high.
On Baker McKenzie: A Chicago judge has allowed a malpractice suit against law firm Baker McKenzie for its work with a Russian affiliate to move forward, Tatyana reports. Plaintiffs challenge Baker McKenzie’s description of itself as a Swiss verein.
On Texas: Vinson & Elkins is leading the way for energy M&A deals in Texas this year, Eric Killelea reports. The firm guided $30.3 billion worth of energy deals through the third quarter, edging out top rivals Kirkland & Ellis and White & Case in Texas.
On Paul Weiss: Firm partner Kannon Shanmugam is a rarity among partners at nine big firms that struck deals with President Donald Trump: He’s talking publicly about issues surrounding the agreements, Justin Henry reports.
That’s it for this year! Thanks for reading and please send me your thoughts, critiques, and tips.
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