Big Law Sportsbook 2025: Place Your Bets on How Firms Will Fare

Welcome back to the Big Law Business column. I’m Roy Strom, and today we place the odds for what might happen at law firms in the year ahead. Sign up for Business & Practice, a free morning newsletter from Bloomberg Law.

Programming Note: Big Law Business will be off until the New Year.

The Big Law Sportsbook is entering its fourth year. Who knew this gimmick could last?

For the uninitiated, I play the role of the bookmaker in this Big Law casino. I make predictions about legal industry trends in the coming year. You wager on whether the target I set is too low or too high by making an “over-under” bet.

Out of the 19 historical such markets here at the Big Law Sportsbook, the “over” has hit 11 times, meaning you have a 58% chance of taking the mythical house’s money. Who can resist such good odds?

Here’s a dirty little secret: We’ve never had a longshot pay out. That’s probably a failure—of imagination. So, we will be canceling the money-losing venture of presenting bets in the form of odds. We’ll lick our wounds for a year. The house is supposed to win!

If you played last year, be sure to scroll to the bottom of this column to see how you did.

Onto this year’s bets!

Firms Eclipsing $3 Billion in Revenue in 2024: 10.5

Seven firms reached the $3 billion mark in 2023, according to the American Lawyer. Another five firms are well-positioned to breach the threshold this year.

Ropes & Gray was less than $10 million shy of the mark in 2023. White & Case and Morgan Lewis & Bockius are all also knocking on the door. They need to grow their top lines by 1.7% and 3.5%, respectively. Hogan Lovells and Jones Day need bigger years—growth of 11.9% and 12.5%— to hit the target.

My number, 10.5, implies at least three of those five firms will do it. Can another sneak across? It’s perfectly possible. The Top 50 firms through three quarters saw revenue rise 14% from the previous year, according to Citi’s law firm banking group.

Firms to Hit $2 Million in Revenue Per Lawyer: 9.5

Revenue per lawyer is often called the best single metric of a law firm’s underlying health. That may or may not be true, but there’s no question that a firm generating $2 million for every lawyer is, in fact, quite healthy.

Six firms reached this rarefied air in 2023. I’m looking for three or four more. Paul Weiss is the most likely candidate, needing less than 1% in RPL growth to get there. Three other firms are in close contention: Skadden, Davis Polk, and Quinn Emanuel. They need growth rates between 6% and 7.7%.

It’s a high bar, but two of the three firms grew revenue at a larger rate last year—and that was during a slower market for legal services. The “under” assumes one or more of those firms won’t reach the target. The “over” is a bet that they all will.

Kirkland & Ellis Equity Partners in 2024: 571.5

One of the less-noticed aspects of Kirkland & Ellis’ growth is the trajectory of its equity partnership. The firm has defied a broader Big Law trend by a significant margin.

The largest law firm by revenue increased its number of equity partners to 539 in 2023 from 359 in 2016—a compound annual growth rate of 6%. The 100 largest firms, combined, have grown their equity tier by an annual rate of just over 0.5% in the same span.

Expanding the number of equity partners has myriad benefits. It’s a strong indication of a firm’s belief in its future, and that has ripple effects all the way down the line.

The total of 571.5 represents about 6% growth from the prior year, which is in line with Kirkland’s recent trend. The firm has eclipsed 6% growth in three of the last seven years.

Paul Weiss’ New Partner Class in 2024: 44.5

I’ll be honest: This number is based more on intuition than strong logic. Paul Weiss announced a record 34 new partners this year, its first class to include income partners. Historically, firms that have adopted an income tier have steadily ramped it up through annual promotions.

So, I don’t know, maybe Paul Weiss grows its class by 10 or so partners next year? We’ll see!

Highest Reported Billing Rate: $3,150

Billing rates have been growing at record levels in recent years. Chuck Chandler, the chief executive at Valeo Partners, which tracks legal bills, expects “several” firms will have partners billing in excess of $3,000 an hour next year.

Last Year’s Results

Number of firms that will report $3 billion or more in revenue: 7.5

Winner: Under

Seven firms reported revenue over $3 billion for 2023. This could easily be considered a “bad beat” for those who punted on the “over.” Ropes & Gray missed the $3 billion threshold by just over $7 million.

Highest profits per partner figure: $8.1 million

Winner: Over

Wachtell reported profits per equity partner of $8.5 million in 2023.

Bonus Bet: Kirkland profits per partner will eclipse Super Bowl ad prices: Yes -300, No +250

Winner: Yes

Kirkland’s profits were more than $8 million, while a 30-second Super Bowl ad went for about $7 million. The traditional, spurious correlation between Kirkland’s profits and Super Bowl ad prices may be breaking down.

Partners in Paul Weiss’ London office by end of 2024: 24.5

Winner: Over

Paul Weiss has closer to 35 partners in or co-located in its London office, according to its website.

Stroock bankruptcy filing likelihood: No -200, Yes +150

Winner: No.

Stroock & Stroock & Lavan has avoided filing for bankruptcy.

Legal fees paid by the PGA Tour: $28.5 million

Winner: Under

The PGA Tour paid $18.7 million in legal expenses, according to its latest tax return, reported by Sportico.

Number of firms to report zero income partners in 2023: 14.5

Winner: Over

Sixteen firms in the top 100 by revenue reported zero income partners in 2023.

Bonus “prop” bet: There will be more non-equity partners than equity partners at the top 100 firms in 2023: +1500

Winner: Not taking the bet.

There were 21,257 equity partners and 20,722 non-equity partners listed by the 100 largest law firms by revenue. The difference shrunk from 1,815 in 2022 to 535 in 2023.

Kirkland new income partner class: 223.5 lawyers

Winner: Under

Kirkland named 200 new income partners in October.

That’s it for this year! Thanks for reading and please send me your thoughts, critiques, and tips.