Big Law Left in Political Wilderness After One Too Many Losses

Big Law’s tired of losing. Losing is not tired of it.

It bet big and wrong on established Democratic centrist Kamala Harris, only to find itself at Donald Trump’s mercy when she lost. It bet just as big and wrong on Andrew Cuomo, who was toppled in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary by the embodiment of the idealistic JDs some firm leaders fear: a 33-year old self-styled socialist and pro-Palestine activist who’s called for defunding the NYPD.

So it’s mulling simply sitting out a race on its unofficial home turf as other industries take sides in the chaotic general election.

“I find no evidence of Big Law taking a lead in the mayoral race, or even engaging,” said Kathy Wylde, CEO of the Partnership for New York City. Her group represents businesses and big law firms like Paul Weiss, Skadden, and Cravath.

Before Zohran Mamdani defeated ex-governor Cuomo in the June 24 primary, Wylde touted law firms as “the most important source for city campaign fundraising.”

Lawyers at large firms anted up some $30 million for Harris’ failed presidential campaign last year. Over the past few months, they helped build a $25 million pro-Cuomo PAC. Among Cuomo’s supporters were Cahill’s Floyd Abrams, Paul Weiss chair Brad Karp, and Jenner & Block partner Jeremy Creelan.

Big Law is generally Democrat-leaning yet small-c conservative. The industry has recently backed changes to toughen up New York’s criminal laws, expressed concern about hiring pro-Palestinian activists, and been wary of outspoken Gen-Z. The field doesn’t lend itself to those Obama-era politics.

“At the moment, it seems as if the most likely result may well be the one Donald Trump would celebrate most boisterously—the election of a New York City mayor who could most easily be characterized nationally as the embodiment of far left-wing, socialist devotion,” said Abrams, senior counsel at Cahill. “Only a decision by either Mayor Adams or Governor Cuomo to withdraw from the race seems likely to avoid this dangerous result.”

Cuomo hasn’t committed to running in the general election—even as he’s suggested Mayor Eric Adams drop out to clear a path for him—and his 12-point loss to a back-bench state legislator hasn’t exactly inspired confidence.

It’s still possible that Big Law may follow Wall Street as it considers boosting Adams in a bid to block the man they call “commie” Mamdani—but the calculation is more complicated. Adams escaped corruption charges thanks to Trump and has since largely allied with the president. Trump’s made a sport of targeting Big Law with executive orders aimed at punishing them for employing his perceived adversaries and forcing them to do pro-bono work for his favorite causes.

Then there’s the chance of wasting money on another bad bet. A July Slingshot Strategies poll showed Mamdani beating Cuomo in the general election by 10 points while Adams trailed in fourth place, behind Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. And political powerbrokers haven’t shown confidence in Sliwa: they’ve pushed to find him another role as he’s said it’d take a “mack truck” to remove him from the race.

Still, it’s not as though sitting out the race means lawyers won’t face the consequences of the winner. Even trying to make peace with Trump after he defeated Harris hasn’t helped firms avoid political tumult. Paul Weiss struck a $40 million deal with Trump and lost a string of attorneys in the aftermath.

The benefits of allying with a political winner are evident in a sector of the legal industry that’s rarely in power: public interest.

The attorneys at public defender offices backed Mamdani from the jump. Lawyers at the Legal Aid Society, the city’s biggest indigent legal service provider, are now threatening a strike that could disrupt city courts and cause headaches for Adams unless their pay is raised. Mamdani said he’d “stand with these brave workers on day one of their strike.”

Big Law will remain relevant and powerful no matter who wins. But in New York, the mayor appoints judges to city courts and oversees the law department, police department, corrections, and investigations. In a town where it’s good to have connections, losing one to City Hall could sting.

Some were looking for a silver lining. Asked about the race, veteran Wall Street attorney Richard Farley said Mamdani’s win “has had one undeniable effect: More interest in my book, ‘Drop Dead,’ about the 1970s New York City fiscal crisis. Happy to send you a copy.”