New York Redistricting Case Gives Democrats Hope for 2024 Gains

New York’s highest court on Wednesday will hear arguments in a case that will help determine which political party has the upper hand in the 2024 congressional races.

Democrats are pushing for new US House lines as they they try to recover from election losses in New York districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020. They want the Independent Redistricting Commission to redraw boundaries that were chosen by a court-appointed special master.

Republicans control the US House 221-212—a margin so narrow that the majority party can afford to lose no more than four of its members on any vote. Democrats see New York as an avenue for offsetting anticipated losses, after a new redistricting in North Carolina that favors Republicans.

“The fate of the US Congress hung on on a number of districts that Democrats might have won but didn’t win in 2022,” said John Mollenkopf, director of the City University of New York’s Center for Urban Research. “I’m sure that the Democrats are interested in trying to tip the scales a little more in their direction for the 2024 congressional election.”

Special master Jonathan Cervas was in charge of drawing the New York congressional district map that Democrats want the state’s highest court to throw out.

Carnegie Mellon University photo

The case, Hoffman v. Hochul, centers on constitutionally mandated requirements for the independent commission to give maps to the legislature. The plaintiffs, a group of New York State voters, want the independent panel to prepare and submit a second redistricting plan to the legislature, which rejected the first proposal.

An intermediate appellate court in July sided with the plaintiffs, handing a win to Democrats seeking new lines for next year’s election. Republicans are now appealing the decision.

(SUBSCRIBE to Ballots & Boundaries to follow redistricting where it’s still in flux, ballot questions, and election trends.)

The lines in place for the 2022 election were set without a specific court edict on how long they should be used—just for one cycle or until after the 2030 Census, said Jeffrey Wice, a professor at New York Law School.

The Hoffman decision will close the loop on that.

A Different Court

The Court of Appeals has a slightly different makeup than the one that put the maps for 2022 in the hands of Special Master Jonathan Cervas. It’s now led by Chief Judge Rowan Wilson, who was one of three judges who dissented in the earlier case.

Judge Caitlin Halligan has recused herself and will be replaced at Wednesday’s arguments by Dianne Renwick, presiding justice of the Supreme Court 1st Appellate Department.

She and Wilson will likely be joined by Judges Jenny Rivera, Shirley Troutman, Michael Garcia, Madeline Singas, and Anthony Cannataro. Garcia, Singas, and Cannataro joined the majority in the special master appointment.

Commission’s Ready

“If the court orders us to go back to work forthwith, we will do so,” said Ken Jenkins, chair of the redistricting panel.

The Court of Appeals already gave the commission the go-ahead to begin preparing to redraw the maps, which would have to be done before political hopefuls circulate candidacy petitions in the spring.

The commission has already held public hearings on redistricting proposals as part of its last round of maps and is now seeking additional input, should the Court of Appeals order the maps to be redrawn, Jenkins said.

The case is on track to wrap up by December.

Gerrymandering Debate

Republicans have been vocal about their preference for keeping the political districts that worked out for them in 2022 and complaining about the possibility that incumbents might have to pitch themselves to a different electorate.

“Voters wont know who’s running and where,” said John Faso (R), a former New York congressman.

“Candidates aren’t going to be well prepared. The whole thing is a crass exercise in political power. It has nothing to do with the public good,” he said.

The case is Hoffmann v. New York State Indep. Redist. Comm’n, N.Y., No. APL-2023-00121, oral argument 11/15/23.