GOP Incumbents at Risk, Newsom Victorious in Redistricting Vote

New congressional districts approved by California voters Tuesday will set off a scramble among lawmakers and potential candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The middecade redistricting will reshape the state’s political geography in ways previously unimaginable along with national reverberations.

The election result is a victory for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who only began publicly floating the idea of redistricting in July as a means of countering President Donald Trump’s push to shore up a Republican majority in the House by redrawing congressional districts in Texas.

The new congressional districts created through Proposition 50 will potentially offset those Republican gains, giving Democrats better chances of winning five Republican-held seats.

Trump and Republicans largely moved on before Election Day, wrapping up a muted and underfunded campaign in the solidly blue state.

Republicans have pressed on with their efforts, redrawing maps in North Carolina and Missouri, producing congressional lines imperiling one of each state’s Democratic incumbents. Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) has ordered a special session that could endanger the two Democrats in the Hoosier State’s delegation.

GOP Setback in Golden State

Californians are beginning to grapple with the aftermath as the results will rearrange races, imperil the careers of longtime Republican lawmakers and give Newsom a chance to show he has what it takes to quickly set up a campaign with donors across the country — skills needed for a possible 2028 presidential run.

The results are a setback for Republicans, who came out of 2024 with momentum in California that put Democrats on defensive over the state’s high cost of living.

Trump performed better than any GOP presidential candidate in the state since 2004, with 38% of the vote. Republicans narrowed Democratic supermajorities in the legislature while voters passed a tough-on-crime ballot measure increasing sentences for some offenses.

The results offered welcome relief to a party that hasn’t had a candidate win a statewide election since 2006.

Republicans, however, may have inevitably faced challenges heading into the midterms with Trump in the White House, given that a president’s party conventionally loses congressional seats in off years and Trump has made the state a target for immigration raids and funding cuts.

“I don’t know if that momentum would have continued anyway,” Dan Schnur, political analyst and former chair of the California Fair Political Practices Commission, said in an interview.

The results may pose a long-term problem for the party, leaving fewer opportunities for GOP members to climb the ladder into congressional seats, making it harder to get California Republicans into powerful leadership roles in Washington.

Prop. 50 will only make it harder to recruit and develop Republican candidates in California, Jack Pitney, professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College and a former Republican staffer, said in an interview.

“If you’re an ambitious Republican in the state of California, you might want to move,” he said.

Incumbents Imperiled

The re-election bids of several Republican lawmakers face uncertain futures, with the GOP currently holding nine of the state’s 52 House seats.

Rep. Ken Calvert (R), first elected in 1990 and now chairman of the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, will be lumped into a Southern California GOP-leaning district with Rep. Young Kim (R).

Neither has made clear their intentions. A Calvert spokesman said the congressman was focused on defeating Prop. 50. A spokesperson for Kim didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R) Southern California district has been radically reshaped, giving Democrats a chance to unseat the former House Oversight Committee chair who has embraced a MAGA style of politics that has played well with many voters in the inland areas he represents.

“They’re the one who stand to lose the most,” Renée Van Vechten, professor of American politics at University of Redlands, said. “It’s likely he’ll be redistricted out of existence.”

Rep. Kevin Kiley (R) faces a potential challenge from Rep. Ami Bera (D), who is considering running in the Republican’s Sacramento-area district, a spokesperson for the Democrat confirmed.

The new map also breaks up the Northern California district of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R), stretching it from rural Republican towns to add more liberal communities near the Pacific Coast. The district will also include the hometown of outgoing state Senate President Pro Tempore Mike McGuire (D), a potential challenger.

Rep. David Valadao’s (R) seat in California’s Central Valley becomes more competitive, setting up a tougher fight for re-election in a district that has been hotly contested for several cycles.

Republicans caution against assuming that redrawing the state’s congressional map will necessarily lead to the results Democrats are expecting. Several left-leaning districts are shifting to be more competitive under the new map, which could buoy the party if the trends in support among Latino voters continue, argued Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant.

“Don’t automatically put five seats into the Democrats’ column,” Stutzman said in an interview.

The Democrats’ roster of candidates may change significantly in coming months as the party watches to see if former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) will run for re-election—a decision she plans to announce after the election and with the potential to ripple through California’s congressional delegation. Other candidates have announced challenges — or runs in her place — including state Sen. Scott Wiener (D).

Newsom Win

One clear winner from the election is Newsom, even if he wasn’t on the ballot.

Newsom was the face of the “yes” campaign, positioning himself as a Democrat who knows how to take on Trump and win at a time when Democrats are looking for direction after last year’s losses.

The campaign also allowed Newsom to show off his skills as a campaigner with national reach. While the election may have been limited to California, he boasted raising money from 1.2 million contributors across the US — a far-reaching list that would be valuable if he runs for president in 2028.

“This seals it. Of the early field, he wins 2025,” Stutzman said.