ANALYSIS: Circle Chimes the Bell for Stablecoins, Q2 IPOs (1)

The IPO market continues to slowly get itself up off the proverbial mat. Last quarter, it raised the most capital in 13 quarters by finding a way to get deals done amid market volatility (now calming), a tariff war, and a Mideast war.

Optimism Is Returning to the IPO Market, Crypto

While Q2’s results are far below those of the the pandemic boom market, they’re improving and optimism is returning. There are growing expectations that deal activity will speed up over the rest of the year.

The top two initial public offerings last quarter were by stablecoin company Circle and fintech company Chime, which offers proprietary technology banking.

The biggest splash was made by Circle: It was not only the quarter’s largest debut, but its shares are also turning heads. Its upsized offering exploded 168% on its first day alone, and its shares were up almost 500% at the end of June. Circle is the second-largest stablecoin issuer after Tether. That sector is enjoying an enormous boost with the Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a first-of-its-kind US regulation of stablecoins.

Expect to see more cryptocurrency firms test the IPO waters in the next year, given the warm reception Circle has received and the growing acceptance of crypto by investors, as shown by crypto exchange Coinbase joining the S&P 500 Index. Its shares have surged over 1,000% from late 2022.

The IPO Market Is Improving Incrementally

The overall IPO market generated less excitement than the top performers did, but the market’s mood at quarter’s end was distinctly higher than it was at the beginning, when President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Those tariffs temporarily quashed optimism in the market by sinking expectations for IPOs. Yet as tariff deals get done with major trading partners, optimism is returning, with growing expectations that deal activity will speed up over the rest of the year.

The graphic above illustrates the prolonged subdued IPO market after the boom market ended at the close of 2021. Diving deeper into those post-2021 numbers (see graphic below), we can observe that the market has for the most part been incrementally growing, though special purpose acquisition company IPOs are disproportionately supporting IPO growth.

The recently closed second quarter saw 96 initial public offerings raising $17.9 billion. Of those, 46 (48%) were SPACs, raising $9.8 billion—55% of the total capital raised. The quarter total represents a substantial increase over the 56 deals that raised $11.7 billion during the same time period in 2024.

If we compare these results to the fourth quarter of 2022, which represents the lowest capital raising of any quarter since Q1 2016, it’s even easier to appreciate the improvement in the market since the pandemic.

A Big Non-IPO Debut on the NYSE

The vast majority of debuts on US exchanges are initial public offerings. Some IPOs aren’t truly new listings, as it’s not uncommon for public companies to go private, then go public again. Other debuts are direct listings, which are new listings that aren’t IPOs.

Something of an outlier is the debut last quarter on the New York Stock Exchange by JBS Foods International, a Brazilian multinational that’s the also world’s largest meatpacker. Its shares now trade on the NYSE in a dual listing with Sao Paulo, where Brazilian depository receipts will now be traded. JBS’s move to the NYSE should eventually change the composition of the S&P 500 since JBS is so large it will very likely be added to that index.

Bloomberg Law subscribers can find related content on our Equity Deal Analytics page and on our Securities Practice Center resource.

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