New Twist On Gerrymandering Litigation: Ballots & Boundaries

A case scheduled for trial next week will either inhibit or encourage a novel approach to challenging political maps.

The case contends that Michigan’s independent redistricting commission violated the Voting Rights Act and US Constitution by spreading Black voters among too many statehouse districts at the expense of majority Black seats. The partisan upshot of the new map was that crossover districts elected more White Democrats — an overall boost to that party as Democrats took over Lansing for the first time in decades, though with fewer Black state senators.

Since the new districts have a Democratic lean, primaries are key. “In the Detroit area, Black voters select their candidates of choice in their primaries,” said John Bursch, an attorney who usually represents Republican-aligned groups who’s representing the Black plaintiffs in this case. “A ruling for the plaintiffs could result in a significant shift to primary-data analysis in future redistricting battles in Michigan and other states.”

If the Michigan litigation achieves its goal, UC Berkeley School of Law Assistant Professor Emily Rong Zhang said she can envision the strategy — focusing on primary preferences instead of general election party results — being picked up by Republicans who might do better if voters of color are packed into a small number of districts. She said she’s skeptical because the Supreme Court “is working hard to say ‘we’re not going to disentangle race and party, even if they’re super intertwined.”

“That’s what this argument is suggesting in this racial gerrymandering case,” she said. A three-judge federal court panel will hear the case on Wednesday. — Alex Ebert

GEORGIA: Court-Ordered Redraw
We’ll be watching for a potential appeal of a federal judge’s order to redo Georgia’s congressional and legislative maps, a move that could maintain the status quo long enough to get through the 2024 elections.

Meanwhile, a different challenge to Georgia’s political districts goes to trial Nov. 13. That one alleges that Republicans violated the US Constitution in drawing the 6th, 13th and 14th Congressional Districts.

Yesterday’s decision said current maps diluted Black voters’ power, and set a Dec. 8 deadline for new district lines. In response, the state legislature is due back for a Nov. 29 special session. Yes, it’s possible for Republicans to craft new boundaries in a way that maintains their 9-5 congressional delegation majority, as BGOV’s Greg Giroux has noted. READ MORE from Alex Ebert.

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NORTH CAROLINA: Next Stop, Courthouse
Here’s an easy way to see the impact of North Carolina’s new congressional district map. It’s the day-after race ratings by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.

One of the targeted incumbents, Rep. Wiley Nickel (D), had some colorful commentary about the re-redistricting. Rep. Kathy Manning (D) was just as angry, calling the new maps appalling and “a power grab in the most grotesque way,” and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told Bloomberg Government’s Zach C. Cohen that Democrats will be looking for redress from the courts.

Bottom line: Republicans have a clear upper hand heading into a cycle in which they can’t afford to lose many seats and still maintain the majority.

One of the first to take advantage of the new GOP edge was former Rep. Mark Walker (R), who stepped away from his gubernatorial aspirations and will run for one of those newly redrawn House seats instead. READ MORE from WGHP.

Instead of taking his chances in the new district, Rep. Jeff Jackson (D) said he’ll go statewide. “I’m running for Attorney General, and I’m going to use that job to fight political corruption,” he wrote in a social media post. One of his delegation colleagues, Rep. Dan Bishop (R), is already in that race.

And here’s a bonus: this week’s ON THE MERITS podcast offers insights into the seems-like-it’ll-never-end redistricting cycle.

NEW YORK: Santos Situation
Democrats would be favored to take back New York’s 3rd Congressional District if Long Island Republicans beat the odds and get the required two-thirds majority support to oust embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.).

An untimely exit for Santos would immediately shrink newly minted Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) majority and give the GOP the opportunity to nominate someone who’s better at fundraising and has less baggage. Democrats would no longer have a scandal-ridden incumbent to tag.

Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) has a strong shot at taking the seat back after giving it up for a doomed bid for governor. — Zach C. Cohen

ARIZONA: Out of the Way
Sometimes a House candidacy is senatorially significant. That’s the case in Arizona, where the loser in last year’s gubernatorial race, Kari Lake, no longer has to strategize for a Republican primary against the party’s unsuccessful 2022 Senate nominee, Blake Masters.

Masters now is running for the House seat of retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko (R), who’s backing a different candidate: Arizona state House Speaker Ben Toma. READ MORE from the Washington Post.

GEORGIA: Intimidation Question
Was a mass challenge of the eligibility of more than 360,000 Georgia voters illegal intimidation? That’s a question being argued before a federal judge in a trial that began this week and could extend through next week and beyond. The case was brought by a group founded by Democrat Stacey Abrams, and she may be called to testify. READ MORE from The Associated Press.

PENNSYLVANIA: Potential Problems Ahead
Going into the 2024 presidential election, old Pennsylvania election rules will likely remain on the books and new precedents won’t, a product of the divided legislature failing to agree on even the most basic changes that have bipartisan support, according to a review by Spotlight PA and Votebeat.

WYOMING: No-Electioneering Zones
A federal appeals court upheld Wyoming’s law restricting the size and number of bumper stickers allowed on a car driving past polling places, and said the ban on electioneering within 300 feet of where voters cast ballots is constitutional. READ MORE from Peter Hayes

Resources

• Our past coverage: BGOV Archive and BLAW Archive
• Tracking Departures in the US House and Senate
• Litigation Trackers: ABC News, Loyola Law School, and Brennan Center
• BGOV OnPoint: US Senate Elections
• BGOV OnPoint: US House Elections
• BGOV OnPoint: Gubernatorial Elections

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