There’s Optimism This Shutdown Will Be Short: Starting Line

Feb. 2, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC

Make it Short

Though huge swaths of the federal bureaucracy lack funding, Speaker Mike Johnson is optimistic about the government getting back to normal this week.

“Let’s say I’m confident that we’ll do it at least by Tuesday,” Johnson (R-La.) said on NBC’s Meet the Press. In the same interview, the speaker also said he expects to have enough votes from Republicans to get a compromise spending bill to the president’s desk.

The legislation now ready for final passage was brokered between Senate Democrats and the White House. It would keep most of the government funded for the rest of the fiscal year and provide two weeks worth of funding for the Department of Homeland Security while negotiations focus on immigration enforcement agents. Read More

Subscribers, Lillianna Byington, Maeve Sheehey and Ken Tran have more detail in this morning’s Congress Tracker.

Also Read: ICE Raids Fight Complicates House Vote, Risking Longer Shutdown

‘Bereft of Human Decency’

A federal judge appended a photo of a 5-year-old in a blue hat and Spiderman backpack to a scathing ruling that ordered the boy’s release from immigration custody, Suzanne Monyak and Seth Stern report.

US District Judge Fred Biery criticized the government for “traumatizing children” and wrote, “Observing human behavior confirms that for some among us, the perfidious lust for unbridled power and the imposition of cruelty in its quest know no bounds and are bereft of human decency.”

Adrian Conejo Arias was taken into custody Jan. 20 by immigration agents who first detained his 5-year-old son as the boy returned home from preschool. The boy was directed to knock on the door of his family home and the agents were accused of using him as bait.

Father and son were taken to an immigration facility in Texas, so that’s where the court action took place. The boy and his father are back in Minnesota, according to The Associated Press. Read More

Meanwhile, a federal judge denied Minnesota’s request to halt the surge of immigration enforcement agents.

218-214

Mike Johnson’s job will get a little tougher because his governing margin will become slimmer when he swears in the winner of this weekend’s special House election in Texas.

Democrat Christian Menefee’s victory means the House will have 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, making it even easier for less than a handful of Republicans to exert influence. However, as Joe Lovinger reports, another Texas election may have repercussions for this year’s midterms because it ended in a flip.

A Republican who had President Donald Trump’s endorsement lost a state Senate seat in a district near Dallas that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Special elections don’t provide apples-to-apples comparisons with general elections, but US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said the election shows “Trump is really exposed” and his policies are “sinking like a stone.”

Swing Seats

Meanwhile, Greg Giroux, who tracks congressional election developments, reports that if House Republicans lose their majority in November, it won’t be because their most vulnerable members lack money.

The 16 Republicans on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Patriot incumbent-protection program had an average of $2.7 million in cash-on-hand as the 2026 campaign year began, according to FEC reports filed over the weekend. Read More

Also Read:

Eye on Trade

Trump’s latest expression of annoyance with Canada — the threat of a 50% tariff on new aircraft — risks consequences on our side of the border.

The US is private aviation’s biggest market, with more than half of the world’s business jets currently owned by individuals living here.

Canada’s Bombadier exited the commercial aircraft business years ago to focus on making private jets, so a new tariff would hit that plane company especially hard. But it buys wings made in Texas, avionics produced in Iowa, motors from Indiana and more. “We have more than 2,800 US-based suppliers across 47 states and are creating tens of thousands of jobs in the US,” Bombardier Chief Executive Officer Eric Martel said last year.

Trump also claimed that he would “decertify” new aircraft from Canada unless that country’s regulators certify competitor Gulfstream’s newest models — something that’s taking a while because Canada wants testing to prove the fuel systems are safe from tiny droplets of water freezing and blocking the flow of fuel to the engines.

The certification process is “something we don’t politicize,” Canadian Industry Minister Melanie Joly said on CBC.

See Also:

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To contact the reporter on this story: Katherine Rizzo in Washington at krizzo@bgov.com

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Keith Perine at kperine@bloombergindustry.com; Herb Jackson at hjackson@bloombergindustry.com

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