Economists Slash US Growth, Boost Inflation Forecasts on Tariffs

Wall Street economists said the US risks a recession this year and inflation could return to pandemic levels following the Trump administration’s announcement of major tariffs on global trading partners.

Nomura Securities International Inc. said it expects gross domestic product to expand 0.6% in 2025 after accounting for the new levies on imports, and a key measure of underlying inflation to rise to 4.7%.

Barclays Plc economists took a more pessimistic view toward GDP — projecting a 0.1% contraction — and a slightly more optimistic view of inflation, penciling in a 3.7% increase. They also look for the unemployment rate ...