World Cup in US Tempts Visitors to Wager When They Can’t at Home

Some 2026 FIFA World Cup fans traveling to the US for the tournament that kicks off this week may find themselves for the first time using a prediction market to bet on the matches, while authorities watch for signs of fraud or manipulation.

FIFA, itself rattled with accusations of corruption, has formed a prediction market partnership with ADI Predictstreet and Fanatics Inc. for the World Cup, at a time when the industry faces both scrutiny and rapid growth.

“We’re at a size, scale, and scope where this is often the first exposure to gambling for many. And obviously an official partnership, it’s going to be advertised, plugged, and played all over,” said Ryan Kirkley, CEO of Global Settlement Network, an institutional blockchain protocol. “It is very different than it being offered in the periphery.”

The World Cup is poised to intensify the US dispute over who can regulate the booming industry—states that want to crack down on prediction markets as gambling or federal regulators overseeing it as financial trading. Markets focusing on such a popular, international event will potentially raise differing forms of legal exposure for firms and fans, attorneys say.

While the regulatory lines are up for debate in the US, many jurisdictions abroad treat sports prediction markets as gambling.

“In terms of the international response, it’s really boiling down to a question of whether regulators view these products as traditional futures contracts, gambling operations, or a new, third option,” said John Auerbach, a managing director of Nardello & Co. who has led investigations in response to probes in the US and abroad. “So far, overseas in the EU, the UK, in Asia in particular, there’s a pretty clear view that these are wagering operations, they should be regulated as such.”

“But the US is still trying to sort that out,” he said.

The UK and multiple members of the European Union would require prediction market operators to obtain a gambling license. Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong similarly treat the markets as online gambling platforms, Auerbach said. China, where gambling’s generally illegal, has effectively banned the markets.

“It’s definitely going to be a fertile area for prediction markets, investigations, and enforcement,” said Charu Chandrasekhar, a partner at Debevoise & Plimpton LLP and former US Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement attorney. “Regulators and law enforcement will certainly be very heavily focused on prediction market trading in connection with the World Cup, given the potential for fraud and manipulation in connection with such a marquee global sporting event.”

Generally, federal regulators have vowed to respond to insider trading, market manipulation, and other potential abuses on prediction markets, while asserting they have sole power over such US exchanges.

A Fanatics spokesperson said in an email the platform has know-your-customer protocols, internal monitoring of unusual trading, “and additional insights from our sports betting business that help flag suspicious activity in the marketplace.” Access to Fanatics Markets is restricted to 23 states and four US territories, spokesperson Phil Fry said.

‘Golden Egg’

Sports prediction markets sparked US legal furor over whether they offer betting products subject to state laws or derivatives contracts traded on federally regulated exchanges.

States say sports event contracts are glorified gambling, an industry historically under their regulatory purview. Kalshi Inc., Polymarket, and other providers counter that their offerings are “swaps” traded on federally licensed markets, placing them under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “exclusive jurisdiction.” The prediction markets have the support of the CFTC and President Donald Trump, who has familial ties to the industry.

The CFTC, Kalshi, and FIFA didn’t respond to emails seeking comment. Polymarket declined to comment on the record.

States might use the World Cup to seek a leg up in the prediction market court disputes. States such as Pennsylvania and New Jersey with legalized gambling that are hosting games may see an uptick in betting and prediction market use, said David Axelrod, a partner at Ballard Spahr LLP who has represented financial industry clients in both federal and state probes.

“I suspect that they’ll use the World Cup and this increase in interest on both regulated gambling sites and prediction markets to make the point that really this is a gambling issue that is within the states’ domain rather than the CFTC’s,” Axelrod said.

It makes sense that the US under a more blockchain-friendly administration has a more “expansive view of this” compared to abroad, Auerbach said. The dominant industry players are US-based, “they’re rapid growth companies, and there’s a reluctance to kill the goose that lays a golden egg.”

International Risks

Regardless of where the cards fall domestically, US-based and offshore exchanges should consider cross-border risks during the World Cup, attorneys say.

“If you’re soliciting customers from a country that does not allow it, you might have to deal with local laws” and potentially be blocked, said Jeff Le Riche, a partner at Husch Blackwell LLP and CFTC veteran.

“But by and large, the international customers trading on a US exchange is fine with US law,” he said.

Prediction market users should consider where they are when making trades, said Brian Sung, a partner at Haynes Boone and co-chair of the firm’s derivatives practice group. For example, people accustomed to using Polymarket’s overseas platform might not realize that version is geoblocked in the US.

“I think users will have to consider the way that they and their trading activities would be subject to regulation both at home and in the places they’re visiting,” Sung said.

With a global event, foreign regulators will be watching, said Dan Boyle, a partner at Boies Schiller Flexner LLP who works with clients confronting multijurisdictional issues.

“I can imagine we will see attention by foreign regulators trying to enforce or investigate what they perceive as gambling on games that are occurring in the United States, either on their teams or by their citizens traveling to the United States,” Boyle said.