First Prediction Market Note Offers Nvidia Bets With Less Risk

Investors who like the binary bets on Kalshi and Polymarket but without the all-or-nothing risk are being offered an unlikely new asset: a bond-like note tied to prediction market outcomes.

London-based Marex Group Plc created and sold the first instance of this new kind of security, which will pay out a 7% coupon if Nvidia Corp. is still the world’s largest company in a year.

The issuance is the latest sign of how Wall Street firms are trying to harness the fast-evolving energy of prediction markets, which have so far attracted interest primarily from small retail traders.

Prediction market exchanges ...