Matt Levine’s Money Stuff: The Taylor Swift Wedding Trade

Romantic

Here’s the one-week chart of “Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?” on Polymarket, the prediction market:

That spike yesterday afternoon — from about 43% to about 100% — came from Swift’s and Kelce’s official engagement announcement; the market has now resolved to “Yes.” The spike Monday afternoon — from about 25% to about 40% — did not come from the official announcement. Someone bought a lot of Yes contracts on Monday; Polymarket has an activity log, so you can see that user “romanticpaul” was a heavy buyer, starting at around 25 cents on Sunday; as of yesterday ...