Planetary alignment
One occasional interest of mine is whether people should make investment decisions using astrology. The first-order analysis is: “Making investment decisions using astrology is dumb. There is no fundamental reason to think that the alignment of the planets influences asset prices, no mechanism other than medieval superstition.” There is a relevant xkcd.
But then the second-order analysis is: “Look, it doesn’t matter that it’s dumb. People do lots of dumb stuff, and financial markets reflect the stuff that people actually do, dumb or not. If, empirically, lots of people make trading decisions based on astrology, then the ...
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