Matt Levine’s Money Stuff: Lever the Predictions

March 12, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC

Prediction market brokering

The way the stock market works is that if a share of stock trades at $50, you can buy it for $50, and then if it goes up to $55 you can sell it for $55 and make a $5 profit. The way the market for crude oil works is different. If crude oil is trading at $95 per barrel, you can’t really send your broker $95 and get back a barrel of oil. (Where would you put it?) Instead, the normal way to trade crude oil is with futures contracts: You buy a one-month futures contract now at $95, and ...

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