Tariffs Risk Igniting Inflation Even Though Effects Muted So Far

Expectations for widespread price hikes following a wave of new tariffs this year have largely fallen short, surprising economists and fueling claims from tariff defenders that the levies are having no impact on inflation.

The reality is more complicated.

Government data out this week showed prices on frequently imported goods such as furniture, sports equipment and appliances rose in June at the fastest pace in years. But a decline in car prices and certain services categories largely offset those gains, keeping overall inflation in check.

Other factors have held back bigger price increases: Some companies raced to import products ...