Why Restoring Hormuz Traffic to Normal Won’t Be Easy: Explainer

The US and Iran have committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important artery for shipping oil and natural gas, which has been largely blocked since the two countries went to war in February. However, returning traffic in the strait to prewar levels — if that day ever comes — presents significant challenges. The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that traffic will return to normal before Aug. 1 and a 68% probability before Sept. 1.

USS Rafael Peralta during blockade operations near an Iranian-flagged ship in April.

Source: US Navy

Here’s a look at the main impediments:

Mine threats

Iran is thought to have mined what was the ...