Trump Friend-or-Foe Gauge Is Key New Metric in Emerging Markets

Emerging-market investors are zeroing in on a key metric as they size up the riskiness of a country’s debt: whether its leaders are in good standing with President Donald Trump.

A nation’s relationship with the US has always mattered, of course, but Trump’s diplomatic style — which can quickly escalate from a late-night missive on Truth Social to tariffs and even military intervention — has made discerning allies from adversaries more important than ever.

US President Donald Trump and Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, outside the West Wing of the White House in Washington, DC, on Oct. 14, 2025.

Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/CNP/Bloomberg

The winners are easier to spot, like Venezuelan bonds, which have racked up the biggest gains in emerging markets this year following the oil-rich ...