Quick Tariff Ruling in Doubt as Supreme Court to Take Recess (1)

The US Supreme Court is dashing any hopes of a quick rollback of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The justices are set to start a four-week recess next week without having ruled on pending challenges to most of the duties Trump has imposed over the last year. After Wednesday’s hearing on Trump’s effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, the justices don’t have another scheduled courtroom session until Feb. 20.

The wait means the disputed tariffs remain in place for now, costing importers more than $16 billion every month, according to federal government data. At that collection rate, the total collected under the law at the center of the case, the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, will surpass $170 billion by Feb. 20, according to Bloomberg Economics analyst Chris Kennedy.

The court heard arguments Nov. 5 on an expedited basis, setting a schedule that suggested an ultra-fast ruling might be in the offing. Some close watchers of the court predicted a decision could come in a matter of weeks, rather than the usual months.

Read more: Trump’s Tariffs Face Supreme Court Test

But by not ruling on Tuesday — when the justices resolved three lower-profile cases — the court suggested a decision isn’t likely for at least another month given its normal practice of announcing all decisions in argued cases from the bench.

A ruling against Trump would deliver his biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House. The court is considering Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, which placed levies of 10-50% on most imports, along with duties imposed on Canada, Mexico and China in the name of addressing fentanyl trafficking.

A Trump loss could also undercut his threat to impose more tariffs on European countries that are resisting his attempt to take over Greenland. Trump hasn’t said what legal authority he would try to use to impose those duties.

If the tariffs are struck down, the White House has said it will quickly replace them using other legal tools, though Trump said Tuesday the alternatives would be a poor substitute.

“I don’t want to scare you, but it’s much more cumbersome — not as good, not as good for national security as this,” he told reporters. “We have a perfect system right now.”

Refund Complications

The longer the court deliberates over the case, the trickier refunds could become. Businesses have flooded the US Court of International Trade with preemptive claims, with more than 1,500 cases filed by mid-January, according to court records. That’s a small fraction of the hundreds of thousands of importers that have paid the contested levies over the past year.

The New York-based trade court has been quietly laying the groundwork for a potential refund phase, pressing the government to share its thinking. The trade court in December denied a request by companies to suspend rolling deadlines for the US to finalize tariff amounts until the Supreme Court rules. The court said it credited the government’s representations that this process, known as liquidation, won’t get in way of refunds.

Earlier this month, the Justice Department told judges that it will not oppose the trade court’s authority to order customs officials to recalculate tariffs and pay refunds for any levies that relied on the 1977 emergency powers law.

However, the government said that it reserved “our right to challenge specific complaints,” leaving open the possibility of fresh fights over who is eligible for repayments. Trade lawyers have also said that it’s not clear the administration will concede that it must pay mass refunds at all if the Supreme Court is silent on the issue.

Opinion Release

Although the Supreme Court could rule before Feb. 20, doing so would require deviating from its usual procedures. The justices have occasionally issued opinions without taking the bench in recent years, but those cases have involved exceptional circumstances, such as a looming deadline.

The justices ruled without going into session last year when they upheld a law that threatened to shut down the TikTok social media platform, ruling two days before the measure was designed to take effect. Similarly, when the court ruled in 2024 that Trump could appear on presidential ballots, the justices didn’t don their robes, issuing a written opinion a day before Colorado’s primary.

The tariff case doesn’t have any similar deadline, though the court’s expedited handling of the case fueled speculation that a quick ruling was coming. The court could also hold a special session to announce the tariff ruling, but that would be highly unusual as well.

The Supreme Court is scheduled to finish its term — and issue the last of its opinions — in late June or early July.

(Updates with court’s schedule and refund complications.)

--With assistance from Zoe Tillman and Jennifer A. Dlouhy.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Elizabeth Wasserman at ewasserman2@bloomberg.net

Sara Forden

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