India’s Economic Growth Outlook Muddied by US Trade Deal Woes

India’s economy and financial markets are sending conflicting signals about the growth outlook, complicating policymakers’ efforts to support activity as high US tariffs weigh on prospects.

Gross domestic product likely expanded at a rapid pace of more than 7% last quarter, yet inflation is at a record low of under 1%, largely because of a collapse in food prices. The rupee has plunged to an all-time low of about 90 to the dollar, while the stock market is soaring. Imports surged last month after the government cut taxes, but exports have plummeted.

President Donald Trump’s punitive 50% tariffs, ...