How Middle Powers Balance the US-China Shock Waves: Supply Lines

Let’s imagine for a moment that you are the leader of a middle power contemplating your economic survival in the 21st century. On this Monday in May what — or whom — are you worried about most?

You are confronting two shocks from two strongmen of the global economy. The most immediate is an energy one tied to US President Donald Trump’s war in Iran and the persisting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer-run one gnawing at you is a surge of imports from China that are the result of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s industrial policies.

With the ...