Goldman Boosts Forecast for US Inflation as Dollar Slides

May 7, 2025, 9:37 PM UTC

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boosted their forecasts for US inflation this year and next, in part to account for a weaker dollar following the Trump administration’s tariff announcements.

A key measure of underlying inflation will rise to 3.8% at the end of 2025 before decelerating to 2.7% at the end of 2026, up from previous estimates of 3.5% and 2.3%, Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Elsie Peng said in a report published Wednesday. In March, the gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — stood at 2.6%.

“First, the dollar ...

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