Global Trade Growth Looks More Subdued in 2026: Supply Lines

Global goods trade in 2025 is a story with two distinct halves — a frenzy of US tariff frontrunning and cargo rerouting, followed by steadier growth fueled largely by investments in artificial intelligence. Next year should bring a clearer picture of the sustained headwinds trade wars create.

That’s a common theme in reports released over the past week by three multilateral institutions that track cross-border commerce and capital flows — the World Trade Organization, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

The WTO kicked off the trio of updates with ...