Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip

Forecasters anticipate President Donald Trump’s trade war will hit economic growth this year and next as tariffs push prices higher and put a dent in consumer spending.

The US economy is set to expand 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, compared with 2% and 1.9% in last month’s poll. The median respondent now sees a 45% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months, up from 30% in March.

Trump’s decision to impose 145% tariffs on China — the third-largest US trading partner — and at least 10% ...