Carney’s Pivot From US Is Dependent on High Gold, Oil Prices

Prime Minister Mark Carney set an ambitious target last year for the country to double its non-US exports over the next decade, a goal that built on his election campaign pledge to make Canada’s economy less reliant on its southern neighbor.

Since then, his government has claimed early signs of success. Its recent budget update said trade diversification efforts “are bearing fruit,” noting that non-US goods exports are up by about 36% since 2024.

But a closer look at the trade data reveals the increase in Canadian exports to countries outside the US has been driven by two price-volatile commodities ...