Wall Street Gets Access to Catastrophe Models for Age of War (2)

As Wall Street races to incorporate war into its risk scenarios, the same people modeling natural catastrophes are now adapting their methodology to help investors, banks and insurers predict military conflicts.

Since 2008, the number of countries engaged in external conflicts has nearly doubled to just over 100, while the economic impact of violence now stands at almost $22 trillion, according tothe Institute for Economics and Peace. That’s equivalent to more than 10% of the world’s gross domestic product.

Wars are upending the finance industry’s ability to predict everything from the price of oil to the cost of a ...