Next Year’s Obamacare Premiums May Escape Impact of Covid-19

If the Covid-19 pandemic ends this year, Obamacare premiums probably won’t rise substantially in 2021, according to an actuary who reviews state rate filings.

David Dillon, senior vice president and principal of Allen, Texas-based actuarial consulting firm Lewis & Ellis Inc., predicted that rates would rise 4% to 6% if the pandemic ends in 2020, because insurers can’t base future rates on past costs. That increase would primarily reflect medical inflation costs and be consistent with historical patterns, said Dillon, a fellow with the Society of Actuaries.

Health insurers have said that their costs to cover Covid-19 claims could reach ...