Abortion Gives Democrats Cudgel in Swing-State Governors’ Races

Memories are fresh in North Carolina of the veto override that created a 12-week limit on abortion. It has made abortion access a top issue for Democrats looking to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper.

North Carolina, where voters chose Democrat Cooper four years ago while favoring Donald Trump to remain president, is emblematic of gubernatorial races this year in swing states, where abortion is quickly becoming a key issue.

“It’s an issue that we have seen people activated on,” Tara Romano, executive director of Pro-Choice North Carolina, said in an interview.

Even before an Alabama court decision this week about embryos created as part of in vitro fertilization jolted the political world and showed how a state abortion law can have far-reaching impact, North Carolina and New Hampshire had two of 2024’s most competitive gubernatorial elections.

North Carolina ticket-splitters kept Cooper in office with 51.5% of the vote four years ago, when President Donald Trump received 50.1% of the vote. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), part of a popular state political dynasty, is retiring, opening a potential path for a Democrat to win a state that Joe Biden carried with 53% of the vote.

Democratic candidates in both states are emphasizing their determination to keep abortion legal after efforts to curb access were proven unpopular with independent voters in multiple states.

The abortion rights side prevailed in every initiative placed on ballots following the US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, and Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky.) was re-elected last fall with 52.5% of the vote after Republican opponent Daniel Cameron attacked the incumbent’s support of abortion rights.

“These people are not foolish. They do want to win,” said Saladin Ambar, a professor of political science and senior scholar at the Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute of Politics.

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“They see how it played out in Kentucky,” Ambar said in an interview. “It has affected the way Republicans talk about abortion.”

North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (D), who’s vying to succeed Cooper, lists as one of his top accomplishments that he “defended women’s access to reproductive health care.”

“Women require equal access to the economy and the workplace, the ability to decide if and when to become pregnant, and the right to earn equal pay for equal work,” Stein’s rival, former state Supreme Court judge Mike Morgan (D), says on his campaign website.

In New Hampshire, Democratic candidate Joyce Craig also calls abortion access a top priority.

No ‘Silver Bullet’

In contrast, the websites for leading Republican candidates including former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) are silent on abortion, as are the issue lists posted as campaign priorities of North Carolina’s GOP gubernatorial hopefuls: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, Dale Folwell, and Bill Graham.

Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee, said voters may be more concerned about immigration and the economy than abortion.

Democrats “think this is a silver bullet for them,” she said in an interview. “But in the governor’s races, I’m not sure it will be.”

It’s too early to predict the degree to which abortion will be a campaign issue in Vermont, another ticket-splitting state where Biden got 66% of the vote while Republican Phil Scott landed 69% of the vote for governor.

Scott is the only governor eligible for re-election who hasn’t said whether he plans to run again, though with a filing deadline of May 30 he can take his time.

“He’s popular across the political spectrum,” Middlebury College political science professor Bert Johnson said in an email. “I’d note that there has not been a rush among potential Democratic Party competitors to declare their own candidacies, which suggests that they don’t see the governorship as up for grabs — at least not yet.”

Red-state Govs. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.) and Spencer Cox (R-Utah) are both seeking another term. All the other incumbent governors are either term-limited or retiring.

Both Cox and Gianforte may face opponents in the GOP primaries who are seeking to position themselves as the more conservative option.

In Montana, Gianforte’s primary election opponent is state Rep. Tanner Smith, whose key issues include tighter regulations on marijuana dispensaries. A former firearms executive is seeking the Democratic nomination: Ryan Busse, author of “Gunfight: My Battle Against the Industry that Radicalized America.”

He served for many years as a sales executive with specialty gunmaker Kimber America. In his book, Busse argues the National Rifle Association radicalized politics in the US, stoking false fears to fuel gun sales. Busse talks about responsible gun ownership and made campaign videos that feature him target shooting with his sons.

As with other Democratic candidates, his website describes Busse as an “unapologetic defender of the freedom of health care and reproductive choice, and of Montana’s constitutional right to privacy.”

Utah Governor Spencer Cox (R) shown at an August 2023 event in Salt Lake City.

Photographer: George Frey/Getty Images

In Utah, Cox is seeking a second term, having won his first in 2020 with 63% of the vote. He previously served as lieutenant governor.

Along with Democrat Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, Cox leads the National Governors Association’s Disagree Better campaign, which encourages treating political opponents “with greater dignity and trust.” That effort is on-brand; in 2020 Cox released a joint ad with his Democratic opponent, Chris Peterson, in which they expressed a commitment to civil discourse in a “one nation” video.

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A chief GOP rival to Cox likely will be state Rep. Phil Lyman, who made a name for himself with a protest of federal land management practices that included an illegal ATV ride in a closed southern Utah canyon. He spent 10 days in jail and was ordered to pay $95,955 in restitution to the Bureau of Land Management. In December 2020, Trump pardoned Lyman.

Lyman’s campaign backers include Mike Lindell, the CEO of MyPillow. Other Republicans who have indicated plans to challenge Cox include commercial pilot Sylvia Miera Fisk and former state Republican Party Chair Carson Jorgensen.

Cox lists among his gubernatorial accomplishments changes in water law, water conservation and infrastructure planning, and increased funding for education and affordable housing.

He also pushed for a new law to bar people under the age of 18 from having social media accounts. “There is no other no other industry in the world where we allow companies to contract with minors to harvest their data. You can’t do it,” Cox told a press conference. “And yet, for some reason, we’ve allowed this to happen.”