The Mystery of the Missing Oil Barrels Is Solved: Javier Blas

Don’t get me wrong: the barrels were there; they existed. But statisticians couldn’t determine whether they represented supply or demand, or a combination of either. The discrepancy caused a major headache to oil traders, as it rendered opaque the true health of the US energy market.

At stake wasn’t just our understanding of the vast US oil market but the accuracy of statistics that underpin billions of dollars in physical and futures oil markets. While the problem may be unsexy, solving it is crucial for the commodity market.

First, the oil issue: In every energy supply-and-demand data set there’s a row called something like “adjustment” or “miscellaneous to ...