US Job Market Is Rebalancing Not Weakening, Dallas Fed Blog Says

The slowdown in immigration means the US doesn’t need such robust job gains to keep the unemployment rate stable, suggesting the recent slide in payrolls may not be so worrisome, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The so-called break-even employment rate has declined dramatically to about 30,000 as of the middle of this year, down from a peak of approximately 250,000 in 2023, the analysis found. That coincided with ebbs and flows in immigration, which surged in 2022 and 2023 in the wake of the pandemic and began to reverse in mid-2024, the research showed. ...