Trump, Democrats Grapple for Edge as Government Shutdown Begins

Hours into the US government shutdown, the standoff is already shaping up as a political quagmire for all involved.

President Donald Trump has gleefully pinned the blame on “crazed” Democrats, in the hopes they will shoulder the political consequences. But the president could face blowback over his tumultuous leadership.

Meanwhile, Democrats are desperate to show their voters that they have the spine to take a stand against the Republican president and his policies, though they run the risk of struggling to stay united and force their message to break through in an environment dominated by Trump.

Politics are at the heart of this funding fight as both parties try to define their priorities ahead of next year’s midterm elections. The impact, however, could be felt even sooner. Trump’s administration has crafted plans for mass firings of government workers beyond traditional furloughs, advancing its goal of slashing the federal bureaucracy.

This shutdown also marks a role reversal for both parties. Republicans are pushing for an unconditional, short-term funding extension after trying to extract policy concessions on multiple past occasions by using the threat of a shutdown as leverage. Now, Democrats are the ones making policy demands.

US President Donald Trump

Photographer: Francis Chung/Politico/Bloomberg

Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are framing the fight as a clash over health-care coverage. Their challenge is to keep their party behind the strategy; Republicans would need only eight votes from Democrats to end debate and pass a funding bill. Three defected in the last vote Tuesday before the shutdown began.

Trump and Republicans have labeled their opponents irresponsible “hostage takers.” But Trump may face blame if he follows through on threats of large-scale dismissals. From the Oval Office, he doubled down on that message Tuesday, declaring: “A lot of good can come down from shutdowns, we can get rid of a lot of things that we didn’t want and they’d be Democrat things.”

Read more: How Looming US Government Shutdowns Became Routine: QuickTake

Marc Short, who served in Trump’s first administration, argued that Democrats are driving the shutdown, but said Trump could lose his political advantage if he is not careful. “I think they have the upper hand, but the question is will Trump allow this to play out or will he inject himself into this,” he said.

The risks were on display after Trump’s Monday meeting with the Democratic leaders, when the president posted a crude AI-generated video depicting Jeffries wearing a sombrero and mustache while Schumer delivered a fake speech saying “if we give all these illegal aliens health care, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us.”

Jeffries later denounced the video as “racist and fake” and posted a photo of Trump alongside the late, disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, writing “this is real.”

Representative Hakeem Jeffries, left, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Photographer: Annabelle Gordon/Bloomberg

The first shutdown in seven years — the first since Trump’s last term — caps a turbulent stretch in Washington even by the standards of this White House. Trump has accelerated his tariff threats, pushed the Justice Department to indict a longtime political enemy and has delivered dark and grievance-laden speeches at the United Nations and before a massive gathering of military leaders.

Democratic strategist Karen Finney argued that many voters are eager to see pushback against Trump and his policies.

“Whether it’s the Epstein files, the tariffs, inflation or costs, he’s underwater on every issue,” she said. “Democrats have an opportunity to make this as a part of a narrative about his failed leadership.”

The Democratic leaders’ main demand for a funding package is the inclusion of health-care provisions absent from the GOP proposal: an extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at year’s end and a reversal of Medicaid cuts enacted earlier this year. They have also insisted on limits on Trump’s ability to refuse spending of money appropriated by Congress.

It’s a sweeping set of issues that isn’t easily transformed into a political slogan.

“The biggest risk for Democrats is that they don’t hang together and offer a cohesive message and critique about what’s really happening,” Finney said.

The White House said they would frame the shutdown as Democrats pushing an agenda “rejected by the American people less than a year ago at the ballot box.”

“The Trump Administration wants a straightforward and clean CR to continue funding the government – the exact same proposal that Democrats supported just 6 months ago, 13 times under the Biden Administration,” said White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson. “But radical Democrats are shutting the government down because they want a nearly $1.5 trillion wish list of demands, including free health care for illegal aliens.”

Republican strategist David Polyansky said that Senate GOP leaders have boxed in Democrats by calling votes on the House’s clean government-funding proposal, which failed to pass.

“They’re going to look like they are being driven into the ground by their base,” he said of the Democrats.

Polling Woes

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Tuesday showed that 26% of registered voters would blame Republicans for shutdown, compared with 19% blaming Democrats. But 33% would blame both sides equally, underscoring the risk for all involved.

If there is a clear economic impact, that could also drive public frustration. Stocks wavered Tuesday, with traders concerned about a delayed slate of economic data. Some experts expressed concern that limited data could cloud the prospect of further interest-rate cuts.

During Trump’s first term the government shut down twice, most notably when the president forced a funding lapse in late 2018 by demanding money for his border wall. After five weeks, with his approval rating plummeting and pressure mounting over missed paychecks and delayed services, he backed down with little to show for it.

“He wanted a shutdown thinking it would be a political win. I think he learned that it’s not,” Short said. “I think he’s been more disciplined leading up to this, but will he stay that way?”

Polling shows that after a chaotic summer, Trump’s polling numbers have remained stubbornly low. The Times/Siena poll showed 43% of voters approve of the job he is doing, compared with 54% who disapprove.

Democrats appear to have a slight advantage with voters ahead of 2026. The poll showed 47% of registered voters would back a generic Democratic candidate, compared with 45% for a generic Republican.

‘Everybody Loses’

Midterm elections also tend to favor the party out of power, which could boost Democrats, though Trump has been pushing redistricting efforts around the country to gain a more favorable congressional map for Republicans.

Heading into the shutdown, Trump has done little to take down the temperature. He did not meet with Democrats until Monday and has shown little interest in negotiation.

The rhetoric is likely to only get uglier as the funding fight plays out and public anger mounts.

“Everybody loses a shutdown. The American people loses a shutdown,” Representative Dusty Johnson, a Republican of South Dakota, said Tuesday on MSNBC. “They’re stupid, they don’t make any sense.”

--With assistance from Derek Wallbank.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Catherine Lucey in Washington at clucey8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Justin Sink at jsink1@bloomberg.net

Jordan Fabian, Romy Varghese

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