Bloomberg Law
Free Newsletter Sign Up
Bloomberg Law
Welcome
Go
Free Newsletter Sign Up

‘Crazy Mess’ of Jobs Data Has Economists Getting It Wrong Again

Feb. 4, 2022, 5:34 PM

The economists got it wrong. Again.

After some estimates called for U.S. payrolls to decline by as much as 400,000, the labor market shockingly added that many jobs in January -- and then some. It’s not just last month: the median estimate has missed by an average of about 95,000 in the past year before revisions, versus less than 20,000 in the six months through March 2020.

Forecasting throughout the pandemic has proven to be a constant challenge -- economists have had to balance traditional indicators like job openings that are backward-looking, with high-frequency data like daily coronavirus cases that ...