Prediction Market Users Suffer Broad Losses as Bots Reap Gains

Prediction markets are being touted on social media as a lucrative side hustle for young Americans squeezed by rent and student loan bills. In reality, most traders are losing money, and a significant amount in many cases.

Over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of every wallet active since the beginning of 2025. That is almost twice the number that made at least that much.

Among the winners, a majority of the profits were raked in by a tiny slice of what look to be automated bots, based ...