Missile Dispute, Reporter Threats Expose Prediction Market Risk

A Polymarket contract on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10 was designed to forecast the future. Instead, more than 90% of the betting volume on the prediction market came after the fact, as users attempted to profit from a dispute that hinged on the source of a single blast.

The stakes turned personal. Emanuel Fabian, a Times of Israel military correspondent, received death threats after reporting that a missile had struck outside Jerusalem, making him an obstacle to one side of the trade. The people behind the messages demanded he change the story to say that an intercepted ...