Worst-Case Fears of 20%-Plus U.S. Jobless Rate Are Now Realistic

What started as the worst-case scenario for U.S. unemployment is quickly becoming reality. Some economists now see the jobless rate surging to 20% as soon as this month -- and there’s no guarantee it would stop there.

About 5.5 million people are estimated to have filed for unemployment last week, in data due out Thursday. That would push the four-week total above 22 million, roughly one-in-eight of the workforce -- essentially wiping out all the job gains since the last recession.

And jobless claims are expected to stay in the millions for several more weeks, as the impact of ...