Traders Ramp Up Bets on US Data Dump Sparking Treasuries Rally

Nov. 12, 2025, 8:54 PM UTC

Bond traders are piling into Treasury options targeting a drop in the 10-year yield below 4% in coming weeks, betting a cascade of data will show the US economy is weakening.

Investors are bracing for updates on the labor market and inflation as the US government prepares to reopen after the longest shutdown in history. Bets on a Treasuries rally are being fueled by expectations that the data will show economic weakness, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December.

Treasuries rallied Wednesday, with the 10-year yield closing five basis points lower at 4.07%. The market held gains ...

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