Traders Boost Bets on Just One 2025 Fed Cut Ahead of CPI (1)

Traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates only once this year amid signs of resilient growth and sticky inflation.

Wednesday brings US consumer-price data for May, which is forecast to show a pickup that may reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see stance toward further easing as it assesses the impact of tariffs. The central bank is widely projected to hold rates steady next week, and futures and options tracking expectations for its policy path show traders are moving to unwind the rate-cut premium built into the months ahead.

Swaps traders now see about 0.45 percentage point ...