Matt Levine’s Money Stuff: It’s Not Gambling, It’s Predicting

June 17, 2025, 6:15 PM UTC

Statute of Anne

Kalshi offers a prediction market where you can bet on sports. No! Sorry! Wrong! It offers a prediction market where you can predict which team will win a sports game, and if you predict correctly you make money, and if you predict incorrectly you lose money. Not “bet on sports.” “Predict sports outcomes for money.” Completely different.

The difference matters for somewhat baffling legal and jurisdictional reasons. The US has a federal system in which:


  1. Commodity futures markets are regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency.
  2. Gambling is regulated by the states.
  3. State gambling regulators ...




Learn more about Bloomberg Law or Log In to keep reading:

See Breaking News in Context

Bloomberg Law provides trusted coverage of current events enhanced with legal analysis.

Already a subscriber?

Log in to keep reading or access research tools and resources.