JPMorgan Boosts US Recession Chance to 35% by End of This Year

JPMorgan Chase & Co. now sees a 35% chance that the US economy tips into a recession by the end of this year, up from 25% as of the start of last month.

US news “hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. The team kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%.

“This modest increase in our assessment of recession risk contrasts with a more substantial reassessment we are making ...