Election-Betting Market Seen Plagued by Same Flaws in Past Votes

Economists have long loved prediction markets. Even niche platforms such as the Iowa Electronic Markets and betting pools inside companies like Ford Motor Co. have been praised for their fortune-telling prowess.

And now, the online emporiums have entered the big leagues with the 2024 presidential election.

Electoral betting is legal for the first time in modern-day US on the platform Kalshi, and wagers worth hundreds of millions of dollars have piled up on it and Polymarket, a crypto-based offshore exchange.

In theory, this means these markets are more liquid than ever. And, therefore, the conclusion ...