Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researchers offered a new warning gauge for recessions, adding to a suite of tools economists monitor to assess whether the US is headed for a downturn.
The Labor Market Stress Indicator highlights geographical variations in the labor market by counting the number of states that see their unemployment rate increase at least 0.5 percentage point above its previous 12-month low.
“The national economy has invariably been in recession each time 30 or more states simultaneously experienced accelerating unemployment,” Rohit Garimella, Òscar Jordà and Sanjay R. Singh wrote in a report released Monday. “The LMSI’s ...
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