Price Data Drops as White House Scrambles on Gas: Starting Line

Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Several new measures of the jittery economy land today – with implications for markets, the Fed, and the debate over Donald Trump’s war in Iran.

Most of the data comes from before the Middle East attacks. But the numbers arrive against the backdrop of a dismal February jobs report, voter worry over the economy, rising oil prices, and midterm elections in which both parties say the cost of living is easily the top issue.

Among the items we’re watching:

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) will show how much households were paying for goods in services in January. Just a little bit has happened since then to shake up the economic picture, but this measure will set a baseline for where we stood before the war.

It could also help determine — and possibly discourage — Fed rate cuts, even as Trump yesterday demanded reductions “IMMEDIATELY.”

While Consumer Price Index data this week showed relatively tame inflation thus far, the PCE is expected to show faster-rising costs, Vince Golle and Craig Stirling wrote.
Real personal spending will show us not just what consumers say about the economy, but how they actually behaved in January.
The most up-to-date info – including early responses to the war – will come from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, covering Feb. 17 to March 9. It will show, at least in part, reactions to the opening days of the conflict.

Trump says he’s unconcerned about short-term price increases or falling stocks, writing on social media that it’s of “far greater” importance to stop Iran from getting nukes.

His administration’s actions, however, show signs of worry. To help ease gas prices they joined in the largest coordinated release of oil reserves in history, are moving to suspend a century-old maritime law on US shipping, and planning to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

It suggests domestic pressure is building. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said there’s “a disconnect” between Trump’s ill-defined goals in Iran, the billions being spent there daily, and people here struggling for housing and groceries.

“How does this help the American people?” he asked.

Now Read This

Michigan, Virginia Attacks: A man was killed after ramming his vehicle into the front doors of a synagogue in suburban Detroit on Thursday afternoon. At Virginia’s Old Dominion University, one person was killed and two injured when a gunman who supported the Islamic State opened fire, the AP reported.

Tax Squeeze: Some states are taking increasingly aggressive steps to rein in property taxes – worrying municipalities who rely on that money for services, according to this deep dive from Daniel Moore. “In theory, what they’re wanting to do is great,” said one local official. Which is a polite way of saying “this sucks.”

Split-Level Housing: An unusually bipartisan bill to address housing costs cleared the Senate with an 89-10 vote, but it faces a tougher road in the House. Conservatives and the home-building industry are balking at a provision banning big investors from buying single-family homes – an idea the White House wanted. Stay tuned.

Big Law, Big Hiring: Big law firms have more than doubled their hiring from within the federal government as attorneys flee the Trump administration, according to a BLaw analysis. But can they afford all those new lawyers who don’t come with a book of clients?

Hanging On: The memo about Democrats seeking younger voices missed Rep. Jim Clyburn, who at 85 announced his reelection campaign. The move could keep Clyburn at the center of national Democratic politics, given his prominence in South Carolina, one of the most critical states in the party’s presidential primary.

Trump Sons Back Drones: Trump’s sons are behind a $750 million push into drone warfare after backing at least three drone companies since 2024 — all based in Florida, which is home to the US military’s Central Command and the president’s Mar-a-Lago estate.

US Refueling Deaths: Four crew members on board a refueling aircraft that went down in western Iraq died, according to the US Central Command, which said the crash is under investigation but was not due to hostile or friendly fire.

Go Deeper With BGOV

The Pentagon awarded $235 billion using noncompetitive solicitation procedures in fiscal 2025, up 23.9% from the previous year, a Bloomberg Government analysis found. The non‑competitive share of unclassified defense contracting climbed to 45% from 40%.

Read More from BGOV contracting analyst Paul Murphy.

Watch This

“I don’t think a company can dictate to a sovereign government what it does with its tools. I just don’t think that’s workable model.” —Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies, speaking about the Anthropic feud with the Defense Department. He spoke alongside Dario Gil, DOE under secretary for science, on Bloomberg Television. Read More

What’s Next

It’s going to be a busy week for central banks, with all of the major ones expected to make rate decisions. Plus, the new Japanese prime minister makes her debut in Washington.

This Weekend:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meet with China trade delegation in Paris, ahead of the big US-China summit scheduled for the end of the month

Read more:

Next Week (day TBD):
Senate begins voting on the SAVE Act

Tuesday:
Primary vote in Illinois for the Senate seat being left empty by Dick Durbin

Irish taoiseach meets with Trump for traditional St Patrick’s Day visit

Wednesday:
Senate hearing on Markwayne Mullin’s nomination to lead DHS

Federal Reserve releases its rate decision

Thursday:
Europe, UK and Japanese central banks release their rate decisions

EU leaders gather in Brussels to discuss the Middle East and Ukraine

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet Trump in Washington.

Eid al Fitr (end of Ramadan)

Seen Elsewhere

From Axios: House and Senate Democrats are quietly planning investigations into companies, colleges, and law firms that cooperated with Trump if they win control of Congress, targeting everything from East Wing renovation donations to university funding agreements.

From The New York Times: The Trump administration is using quick legal settlements with Republican-led states to bypass legislatures and lock in policy changes on immigration and education that could last years beyond his presidency.

From The Washington Post: The UFC is skipping D.C. permits for its June cage fights on the White House South Lawn, claiming federal land exemption. That means the presidential birthday brawl won’t count toward fighters’ official records.

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