Venezuela Transition Appears Increasingly Likely: Barclays

While uncertainty is “likely to remain elevated,” a transition appears increasingly likely, which is “the clearest path for debt restructuring and the best possible outcome from a market perspective,” Barclays analyst Alejandro Arreaza wrote in a note to clients.

• The correlation of forces favors the opposition in an unprecedented way, Arreaza wrote, and “combined with international observation, could contain the risk of a manipulation of the election results”
• The government has given meaningful concessions that support the possibility of a political transition, avoiding the annulment of the opposition coalition ballot and granting Edmundo González the opportunity to appear in local ...