Market-Implied Venezuela Transition Odds Rise to 36%: Barclays

Prices for Venezuela bonds are implying a 36% probability Sunday’s election will usher in a political transition, Barclays Plc.’s Alejandro Arreaza, Jason Keene and Amarpreet Singh write in a report to clients.

• Market-implied odds have risen from about 20% in June, they write
• President Nicolas Maduro has yet to take meaningful action to impede the electoral process, with risks of opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez being disqualified or the opposition coalition ballot being annulled not materializing, they write
  • “This supports our view that internal constraints might be limiting the government’s actions, making a transition a real possibility”
• Government and ...