Global Default Could Surpass 8% on Trump’s Tariffs, Moody’s Says

The global default rate could rise to 8% over the next year from less than 5% today if high-yield bond spread continue to widen, as they have since Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement last week, according to a Moody’s Ratings analyst.

• “A negative shock could keep the global speculative-grade default rate high,” according to Sharon Ou, Vice President and Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s Ratings
• Industries with complex supply chains, like technology companies and automakers in Europe, Japan and Korea, are most exposed, according to a Moody’s report dated Sunday
  • Most factors are still largely in flux — including how ...