Calling CRE ‘Manageable’ Is Just Wishful Thinking: Macro View

Policymakers calling the roughly $1 trillion of commercial real estate debt coming due this year “manageable” may regret it. If defaults topple hundreds of US banks — as the pessimists predict — the impact on markets and the economy will be tumultuous.

• The commercial real estate debacle is only expected to escalate. Asked whether the stress will worsen and hurt banks over the next 12 months, about three quarters of respondents to a recent MLIV Pulse survey said yes.
• According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, there’s $929 billion — 20% of the $4.7 trillion total — in commercial ...