Barclays Sees ‘Significant Possibility’ of Venezuela Transition

Uncertainty is elevated in Venezuela ahead of the July 28 presidential election, but “the balance of risks seems to be asymmetrically positive,” Barclays analysts Alejandro Arreaza and Jason Keene wrote in a note to clients.

• Maduro government “could be making a calculus mistake or face internal constraints that could end up forcing it to negotiate a transition”: Barclays
• While there are concerns that the govt. could disqualify opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, “it seems to have taken the path of imposing of obstacles through electoral engineering and institutional control”
  • Barclays: We view as the most risky scenario for the government, as ...