Trade Chaos Is Part of the Plan for Trump, Nightmare for Powell

Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.

Tuchler says the turmoil around tariffs has landed him in a maddening “game of chicken,” in which he can only guess what his import-tax bill might be when it actually comes due. His e-commerce site just placed an order from China for “literally $80,000 worth of stockings,” Tuchler says. “Or is it going to cost me, like, $200,000? How does one plan a business this way?”

Scale that up, and the question facing Powell is much the same. If thousands of businesses ...