Kalshi Fed Forecasts Are as Good as Wall Street’s, Study Says

Kalshi, the booming platform that churns out predictions on everything from the Super Bowl to US elections, is showing early promise as an accurate forecaster of Federal Reserve policy and economic data, a new study finds.

When it comes to predicting interest-rate decisions, Kalshi is “roughly consistent” with professionals such as those surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to a working paper authored by three economists, including one from the Fed. In a notable case, the prediction market even outperformed the pros when the central bank delivered a surprise, jumbo-sized cut.

The paper, which has not ...