Count on Labor to Bolster the US Economy in 2024: Claudia Sahm

In 2024, the eyes of market participants will be focused intently on the Federal Reserve. The two key questions are when will the central bank cut benchmark interest rates from their highest levels since 2000 and by how much? As much as those questions matter to investors and traders, they are far less relevant for the so-called real economy and its ability to avoid a painful recession.

Why? Because the labor market is the most important cushion against any policy mistakes the Fed might make on the path toward a so-called soft landing. Consider that economists expect the US Labor ...