Will AI Be an Economic Net Positive? Probably Not: Bill Dudley

The boom in artificial-intelligence investment is undoubtedly boosting both the US stock market and the broader economy right now. But what about the longer term? Will AI be a big net positive, delivering prosperity and solving the nation’s fiscal problems?

Most likely, I’m sorry to say, it’ll be closer to a wash.

To assess AI’s longer-run implications for the economic outlook, one must consider three questions:

1. How much will it lift productivity and growth?
2. How will it change the demand for labor and the equilibrium unemployment rate?
3. How will it affect interest rates?

On productivity, there’s no consensus. It’s still ...